Verified Commit 2a1dfbb3 authored by Markus Shepherd's avatar Markus Shepherd 🙊
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How good were the predictions?

parent 4d5bce48
......@@ -120,3 +120,29 @@ Not to brag, but I called this one [months ago](https://twitter.com/recommend_ga
* {{% game 251247 %}}Barrage{{% /game %}}: Definitely on the *very* heavy side even for a {{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}}, yet [Udo Bartsch's high praises](https://rezensionen-fuer-millionen.blogspot.com/2021/02/wasserkraft.html) left no doubt about a recommendation.
* {{% game 291457 %}}Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion{{% /game %}}: Similar to the previous entry, I had a good feeling about a recommendation, but didn't think it'd be actually considered for the award.
* {{% game 291859 %}}Riftforce{{% /game %}}: I completely missed this one, as did the algorithm, placing it at position 81. At least it classified it correctly as a {{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}} – with 51% confidence. 😰 The only pure two-player-game on either list, this proves how hard it is for lower player counts, even during a pandemic induced shortage of playmates.
# How good were the predictions?
This really is a drama in three acts: the decision of {{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}} or not, the algorithm picking the longlist, and finally my guts picking the shortlist.
## {{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}} score
When I introduced the [{{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}} score]({{<ref "posts/kennerspiel/index.md">}}) a couple of months ago, I didn't really have a good validation set to evaluate my model against. Now I do!
Out of the fifteen games on the longlist, the algorithm classified thirteen correctly. One was predicted wrong on either side of the line: The model saw {{% game 223040 %}}Fantasy Realms{{% /game %}} as a {{% sdj %}}Spiel{{% /sdj %}} and {{% game 317311 %}}Switch & Signal{{% /game %}} as a {{% kdj %}}Kennerspiel{{% /kdj %}}, but the jury saw it reversed. 87% accuracy is actually pretty decent for such a simple model trained on a small dataset, but it's still a nagging feeling just how far off the score for {{% game 223040 %}}Fantasy Realms{{% /game %}} was.
Anyways, we live and we learn, and the model has already been updated with the jury's latest decisions, so hopefully next year it'll work even better!
## Longlist
TODO
## Shortlist
TODO
All that's left to do is waiting. The jury will announce the winners on July 19, we'll be back shortly before that with the favourites for the two awards. 🤓
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